1. Did Bush lose in 2008? Even though the Democrat-controlled Congress was polling even less well than President Bush, it was the GOP that bore the brunt of the electorate's ire. Conservatism has been damaged by an unpopular President who, while a tax cutter and a doughty war leader, failed to act with the fiscal rectitude of a true conservative. In the process the conservative brand was damaged seriously.
2. Target the Hispanic vote proactively. The Democrats polled particularly strongly among non-Cuban Hispanics. The charge that Obama was a socialist resonated with Cubans but Hispanics voted heavily as a bloc for Obama, despite McCain's amnesty proposals. The GOP must not make the same mistake it made with African-American voters (and that the Tories made with Commonwealth immigrants). Hispanic voters, if they can be treated as a bloc (which I accept they cannot necessarily be), share the values of the GOP and conservatives. Using optimistic, empowering and inclusive rhetoric, GOP and conservative values need to be communicated persuasively to them - just as former Governor Jeb Bush did so ably in Florida.
3. Don't ignore expats. The overseas efforts of the GOP, particularly in Britain, have been derisory. Hundreds of thousands of American citizens have had their minds polluted by the BBC and too little was done by the GOP (or by those of us sympathetic to conservatism here) to redress that balance.
4. The GOP must skip a generation. Tired old faces such as John Bolton, Newt Gingrich et al (no matter how much I might agree with them on many, many issues) need to recognise that their time has been and gone and the beacon of leadership has been passed to a new generation of Republicans and conservatives.
5. Learn from the Tories. The GOP needs to learn from the mistakes made by the Tories since 1997. In particular it must not collapse into internecine struggles that disgust voters and distract political leaders and activists from holding the Democrats in Congress and the President to account for the next 4 years. Any arguments must be had behind closed doors and Republicans need to remember that there is more that unites them than divides them (although some RINOs in the Senate are perhaps beyond the pale).
6. Focus, don't wallow. The next 4 or 8 years should be embraced as a great opportunity for the conservative movement to regenerate. That work must be done cheerfully and with the utmost dedication. Fundraising will prove to be easier than with a GOP-dominated Congress and White House. It is easier to raise funds when you are opposed to something than when you are having to justify the inadequate actions of Congressional leaders supposedly on your own side. And provided that the GOP and conservatives can put together a coherent, achievable and sensible programme based on tried and tested conservative principles and values there is no reason why the GOP cannot make gains in 2010 and put up a good fight in 2012.
7. Adapt or die. In opposition the GOP and the conservative movement need to recognise that there has been a sea-change of sorts and they need to adapt accordingly, and quickly. America has not become a left-liberal country overnight: most voters who express a preference say they are conservative rather than liberal. But conservatives and the GOP must accept that the great tunes of the past two decades are not necessarily the tunes to play in 2010, 2012 or beyond. Principles and values endure, policies and the way to communicate the message develop.
8. Learn from the Democrats' organisational successes. While the GOP's grassroots GOTV network may have remained impressive, the Democrats had a far superior internet grassroots campaign, which also meant Obama could raise hundreds of millions of dollars in small amounts from ordinary voters. For once, the Democrats did not have to rely as heavily on the unions, corporations or wealthy individuals. Such diverse funding streams ensure voters truly connect with their party's leaders. The GOP needs to embrace such fundraising and campaigning techniques quickly.
The next 4 or 8 years will be great fun for those of us who are tribalists. I have every confidence that Barack Hussein Obama (as he will call himself when he takes the oath of office in January) will disappoint millions of people who voted for him. Like Tony Blair he has over-promised massively and he will under-deliver. His economic policies resemble the very worst of European social democratic corporatism. He will be weak on Islamism and will underfund the military. He will expand the size and scope of the state. He will kow-two to leftist special interest groups who have been baying for revenge since 2000.
There is much for those of us who remain proud to call ourselves conservatives to get our teeth stuck into. We should do so with vigour. We now have, of course, a couple of months to lick our wounds prior to Obama's inauguration - but come 20 January we need to be ready to campaign hard for the 2010 mid-terms and for the 2012 election.
18 comments:
Hallo Donal,
Thank you for your efforts on Iain Dale's Diary. A couple of questions-
Do you have anyone in mind who would like to see try for the presidency in 2012 or 2016?
BTW: Sorry if this is a dense question, but what is a RINO?
Malcolm
Republican In Name Only - ie: wets!
I have no specific individual in mind for 2012. I would not rule out Palin, Romney or Huckabee from this year, or the likes of Crist or Jindal as governors. But it is, and should be, an open field.
What about Tim Pawlenty?
Bear in mind that obama went unvetted by a compliant msm, 90% of whose "journalists" are democrat party supporters.
Palin got more investigation in a couple of months than obama got in a couple of years and most of the stuff about Palin was invented and/or embroidered. Of course, every decision or strategy from McCain was rubbished.
The only bright light I can see here is that the printed press is in (well deserved) decline and that so far right wingers are better in the blogosphere.
obama's fundraising was augmented by his switch on campaign funding. The Republicans wont make again the mistake of opting for state funding.
i who, while a tax cutter
Gasp, you don't mean that tax cuts aren't automatically a vote winner?
Excellent points Donal.
On the issue of skipping a generation; I think that's a process that will happen quite naturally. Few of Bush's crew show much enthusiasm for continued life in politics and many of those on the edges are showing their ages now. I'd expect some quiet retirements over the few months.
One bright hope... is Sarah Palin. There, I've said it. Despite the knocking from the left, she was really connecting with ordinary working class people. Many of them not the usual natural Republican supporters but are just the targets the party needs to win in future. I'd be pleased to see her use this time to gain some more experience and perhaps come back to front line national politics in future.
Hi Donal, I believe Palin is our best bet and she needs support and help from now onward, I agree with all you said and keep flinching thinking back to that song 'thibgs will only get better' - it took 3 years, I feel for a lot in the UK to feel the pain of left, but lets hope conservatives take their two best polititians, truly, Boris and Davis, to lead, Cameron is too wet, people don't want him no matter how nice.
A very humble acceptance of defeat, but the scale of McCain's defeat shows that the Bush factor was the least of his worries. It all went downhill from the moment he selected Palin - a stronger VP could have made last night incredibly close.
(posted the same on Iain Dlale, with the soccer sorry football bit changed for your benefit)!
Greetings from Oregon!
Here the flags are waving, the bands are playing on every steet corner, the car horns are still honking. And it feels like we've won the World Cup. (or maybe Liverpool won the Champions League)!
You are probably right, but we'll have a little celebration before we analyzzze your analyissss!
Happy Hangover!
PS; Great blog tonight, and kudos to Fox on calling it straight and being very gracious in "defeat".
Fundraising: I have repeatedly asked the Conservative Party's webmasters to put a PayPal link on their fundraising page. They refuse.
There is no easier way for the internet generation to give the odd fiver painlessly, and the Tories are looking a gift horse in the mouth, distracted by toothsome oligarch amounts.
Learn from Obama's fundraisers. Those five and ten dollar donations, made by the invisible voter when he or she felt inclined, usually many times more than once over 18 months, gave Obama his critical advantage.
Word verif: MAKEYER (!)
I think this is an interesting question. Who is going to lead the Republicans into 2012 or 2016? I would be interested to know how many conservatives feel that Jeb Bush might rehabilitate his family name and mount a challenge. Since 1952, the two parties have tended to win presidential elections in blocks of two and given that trend, Jeb Bush may consider that the Republicans do not really have a chance until 2016. Would that be enough time for him to distinguish himself from his brother? For anyone actually interested enough to look beyond the name, his record in Florida certainly strikes a different note to the record of his brother. I don't agree with Jeb Bush on anything, but as an avid follower of politics I do admire people with convictions and interesting things to say.
I think Jeb Bush could become a very influential campaigner and leading figure for the Republicans over the coming years and I say this as a Democratic Party supporter because we have to be aware of any possible threats in the future. I can envisage a situation where Jeb Bush makes clear from early on that he will sit out 2012 but at the same time makes clear that he will support and actively campaign for Republicans across the country in elections to Congress. If the Republicans are going to rebuild they need a thoughtful and popular kind of spokesman in these next few years who will clarify conservative messages to voters and put them across in a soft and non - dogmatic way. This is the role Reagan played through his radio shows during the Carter years and whilst Bush's personality is not that of an entertainer, he seems to me to be the most authentic and credible conservative about today. As such, he could be a very popular and prominent GOP leader over the coming years and as a threat, I would take him very seriously in 2016.
As for Palin and Huckabee, forget it, they are not presidential class. Palin may win a presidential election, but as Bush has shown the Republicans, an election winner can also cause serious difficulties for your party in the long term. However as an anti - conservative, I would warmly welcome either Palin or Huckabee as a future GOP nominee.
Mitt Romney cannot be written off though. All the members of the broken Reagan coalition splintered off in all sorts of directions in 2007. They were like headless chickens, firstly they supported Fred Thompson before realising that really he was a lazy useless lump who did not give a shit and then in late autumn when most abandoned him they went running round looking for someone else. Some ended up with Huckabee for socially conservative reasons, some ended up with Giuliani for security reasons and some ended up with Romney because of his financial record. If they had all known that Romney and McCain were the only ones with the ability to last the distance, I'm sure Romney would have won over enough support to beat McCain. This could have changed the ultimate result in 2008. I was genuinely worried that Obama was going to lose to McCain until the financial crisis. When this crisis struck McCain and Palin looked shell-shocked and out of their depth. McCain's knee jerk reaction to suspend his campaign looked dramatic and desperate. Romney would surely have reacted more calmly and although I don't like to admit it, I think he may have inspired more confidence in ordinary Americans than the less experienced Obama. We will never know if a different GOP nominee in 08 would have led to a different president, but looking back I'm glad you guys chose McCain and not Romney.
I think Romney will be the one for us to beat in 2012. However, I also think that the big threat from Conservatives in the longer term could well be Jeb Bush.
Donal,
Having helped out in the Republican campaign in Virgina, I agree with all of what you say. In particular the GOP needs to do what the Democrats have been doing in the last four years - making their party a national party once again by fighting more aggressively for votes in traditionally Democratic states. Targeting Hispanic voters would help make California more competitive and dramatically change the complexion of the electoral college race. I also feel that the Republicans need to promote conservative values as positive and hopeful in very much the manner that Ronald Reagan did.
Believe me, the Democrats would love the GOP to go with Palin. It would be like Goldwater in 64 but without his intelligence, gravitas and decency.
In the next few weeks we will hear from the McCain campaign just what a prima donna she was.
4 years ago, Obama was a freshman senator. The lay of the land in 2012 will be completely different to today. Talking about Huckabee and Palin would be equivalent to talking about Howard Dean and John Edwards in 2008. The GOP needs to accept what has happened and why it has happened (rather than blaming the media or assuming that the public have been duped) and then move forward with a positive conservative agenda.
McCain's campaign may have failed in any event but he only ever offered a very negative set of reasons to go and vote for the GOP ticket. If Reagan had run for office in that manner he would have lost.
It was a terrible campaign with an awful candidate (great man...awful politician) who never once showed any promise. The only decent thing he did was bring in Palin who help prevent a total rout.
Fox was already in retreat way before election night...I saw a disgusting display of sycophancy as he trashed sites critical of Obama.
I, unsurprisingly, disagree with Mr Clarke about 2012 being a writeoff for Republicans.
Obama's electoral college tally is impressive, but he won broad rather than deep.
A 3.5% swing would put Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida back in the republican column, and that is 269.
Even assuming that the democrats keep control of the house (and more importantly the house delegations) in 2010 (And let us not forget that it was two years of Clinton with a democrat congress which helped deliver the 1994 Republican takeover), then the Republicans would still only need one moe state to flip to win, and Iowa, Minnesota and New Hampshire would all fall to 5%.
Obama faces an very difficult task holding it together. Every decision he makes will risk alienating either he moonbats or the moderates, and come 2012, his two biggest assets from this year will be gone. Bush will be long gone, and the excitement of electing the first black president will be gone.
I wouldn't be surprised either if Harry Reid decides (or at least if someone decides for him) to go out on a high and the Hildebeast becomes majority leader, and if that happens then Obama has real problems. She still hasn't given up on being the first woman president, and she won't unless the Republicans get on with electing one quietly and without fuss.
I didn't say that 2012 is a write off for you guys. There are very few presidential elections which are a write off for anyone. Even this election was still open six weeks ago. However, the current political circumstances suggest that Barack Obama has a very good chance of getting a second term.
Firstly he has the inbuilt advantage of incumbency. Presidents have three years of setting the agenda before their opponents even win their first primary. Secondly, he has the advantage that the most serious problems facing America today are strongly perceived to have been caused by the previous administration. This will allow Obama to gain credit for even mild improvements whilst protecting him from blame unless he blatantly appears to exacerbate the problems. Thirdly, he has built up such a strong level of affection and respect within his own party (with some exceptions, ie the Clintons), that I cannot see them turning on him unless he seriously betrays them. Sure there may be some lunatics on the fringes of his campaign who believed that he would be able to turn the U.S into a socialist state overnight and those people will no doubt enter the documentary movie industry and spend every day of the next four years slating Obama for betrayal. However, those people will not have enough credibility to seriously undermine him politically.
Overall, in spite of lofty expectations I think people will, for the next four years, be satisfied with having a President of Obama's temperament who pragmatically works through America's fundamental problems and calmly puts the great country back on its feet. Once he has done that, he can turn to making America fairer and delivering the promise of his campaign.
The problem for Obama is that he was so vague during the campaign, that whatever he does will disappoint some of those who voted for him. Yes he is the incmbent, but that can also work against him. When somewhat less than 95% of americans receive a tax cut he will take a big hit, especially when those who don't realise that many of those who do don't actually pay any taxes anyway, and so it will go with other areas.
Obama is a first rate politician, and he will no doubt succeed in attributing some of the blame for the inevitable failings (inevitable because to avoid them he would need to simultaneously achieve mutually exclusive ends) on the republicans, but it is worth noting that based on CBS News figures (try pinning a Republican bias claim on that one), there would only need to have been 456,638 people vote differently to change the outcome, and while that sounds quite a few, many of them are in big states like Florida and Ohio, where it translates to a couple of percent.
Obama is by no means doomed, but he has a lot less room for slippage than the electoral college margin would suggest, and with a much more diverse coallition than many recent presidents, more scope to upset people.
The Washington Post admitted they favored Obama and over looked checking into those he kept company with. The media at large preferred Obama. My thoughts are this....Obama is fresh meat! It won't be long and the media will be pulling out their bag of tricks and tossing it to the public to get them all stirred up again .They love gossip! They will have a good four years of it or more the way I see it.
Palin came into the game too late...it was obvious to the masses she was only put in the last minutein hopes of gaining "women "supporters who were so discouraged over Hillarys great loss. Had Palin been asked long before to be McCains VP...I do believe she would have took the womens votes...perhaps all of them in the end.This is only my opinion.
I also think that they will put Romney in 2012 to run for president against Obama ;)
Post a Comment